Three posts about ecological singularity and the avalanche of change
The Eco-Singularity is near. Preface (I) - … Definition (II) - … Solutions (III)
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The planet issue
Part I was about getting there, the backstory of why and when I wanted to get deeper into the issue of “PSP” – planet saving politics : ) Before I start to explain that strange neologism “eco-singularity” let us have some reality check: Where are we today, about eleven months after the failed summit? A reality check is quite easy since there is a meeting in these days again.
Yesterday, today and tomorrow: Climate talks without adequate political will
In Tianjin, China, negotiators from 177 nations are meeting for U.N.-mandated climate talks . Guess we will see the same syndrome as in Kopenhagen. Even after this years extreme weather events (from Poland to Russia to Pakistan to bring some to mind – and: yes I know the difference of weather and climate!) we do not see “adequate response”. Diagnosis: The econo-techno-political system in it’s entirety just is not capable to process the (mostly unambigous) input of science into the output of necessary decisions.
We are over capacity! Will innovation stretch our limited ressources somehow? Image source: Wackernagel 2010
Connect the both time series. We are part of non-linear systems – surprising changes to the worse are probable. Image source: Munich re 2004
2020 outlook: Missing the target
Missing the target with 13.600.000.000 tons of CO2 – nearly a third:
WWF says the world needs to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to a yearly output of 40 billion tons of carbon dioxide by 2020 to limit the warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels. Instead, nations are on track to emit up to 53.6 billion tons of CO2 per year. (Little hope for climate protection – UPI.com)
My dear reader, you can see, that my skepticism is not exaggerated, but it is evidence-based. Here some observations:
- The aggregated solution potential of international politics, national governments, transnational institutions is weak (compared with what is necessary)
- The influence of NGOs is weak (compared with what is necessary)
- The insight of the public is weak (compared with what is necessary)
- The insight and will of economical leaders is weak (compared with what is necessary)
- The global media system as an attention market quickly is bored with repeating stories (mass media and social media do not function very different in this respect)
Worse: There is a systematic blockage feeded by the globally prevailing growth paradigm, which is assumed to be axiomatic – with no plausible and convincing alternative economical framework in sight. I confess that I do not have an alternative system in the pocket, but at least I know that we desperately need some. If you do not know, that you are missing something, you will not start searching. And what is your level of awareness?
Reminding the singularity issue
Ok, we have all heard about global crisis, growth limits, the need for urgent action for quite a while. But what has this eco-singularity thing top do with it – and what is it? First remind the concept of technological singularity:
A technological singularity is a hypothetical event occurring when technological progress becomes so extremely rapid, due to positive feedback, that it makes the future after the Singularity qualitatively different and harder to predict. It has been suggested that a singularity will occur during the 21st century, … (Wikipedia)
Strange Wikipedia text since the standard topic of the singularity debate is missing here – the (i) emergence of a smarter-than-human Artificial Intelligence as (ii) a consequnece of accelerated technological progress and (iii) possible threat to mankind.
Eco-Singularity is the top issue of our time
The top issue of our time is not thinking about the day when man has created an Artificial Intelligence intellectually superior to homo sapiens sapiens – and what this imagined being will do to us, or what we should do today to stop this development.
The real question today is: Will we as a global community (and esp. the decision makers) do the right thing to secure that set of resources R*, which is necessery to solve the upcoming crisis before this set of ressources is destroyed. With R* I mean all kinds of resources, not only the natural resources and biodiversity. E.g. the knowledge and innovation system and even the moral resources are included here.
Eco-Singularity definition – first trial
Eco-Singularity is the event, when our (growing) capacity to solve the totality of anthropogenic problems is superseded by the volume of the (growing) totality of anthropogenic problems.
Sounds complicated but it is not. I am not talking about the “limits of growth” in a finite system or about the predictability of the future. For better understanding one example:
Nuclear waste: This is an anthropogenic problem since radiation cannot be neutralized. There is a set of solutions e.g. to bury the waste. This means we have a technology T1 (for energy generation) and a different technology T2 (for protecting the biosphere from the isotopes). If T2 really compensates the “anthropogenic problem” of T1 everything is alright, if it does not solve the problem you might have even increasing costs.
Mankind of today has a lot of problems which can be structured this way: There is a T1 technology with some (often huge) benefits – and there is a T2 technology to clean up or compensate for negative side-effects of T1.
Examples:
- Agriculture -> Deforestation – to reforest is very costly in comparison to protect against deforestation
- Agriculture, mining etc. -> Decreasing biodiversity – everyday specieses are lost forever
- Using pharmaceuticlas -> Polluting groundwater with hormones, antibiotics etc.
- …
What is in your mind now? There should be some innovations in the pipeline to reset the state of nature, aren’t they? Good point. You are on the track to understand eco-singularity!
Meta-problem of mankind: Losing the innovation race
If there is a general and widespread problem structure of T1-T2 type then one decisive factor is innovation, research and development, right! But there is definitely no guarantee, that the sum of all the unwanted T1 effects can be compensated in time by the development of the T2. Since we cannot measure, what is possible in the future if there is a disruptive innovation X, the eco-singularity can lie behind us (we will lose the game), and it may lie ahead – two weaks or two centuries. It has to be a hypothetical conceptual construction.
Usefulness of the Eco-Singularity concept
After all, what is this concept good for if it remains somehow hypothetical? It changes the perspective and the set of questions. And it will make us more realistic and careful about the release of ever new technologies, when we are not in control of even the old ones!
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Three posts about ecological singularity and the avalanche of change
The Eco-Singularity is near. Preface (I) - … Definition (II) - … Solutions (III)
.
Image sources
Munich re 2004: http://maps.grida.no/library/files/global_costs_of_extreme_weather_events_thumbnail.jpg
Wackernagel 2010: Four Things to Know In Times of Resource Constraints, Mathis Wackernagel, Ph.D. - CollediVal d’Elsa, 7 June 2010
